Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Arcade game?

Combat + Arcade

Of 1,137 developers who shipped a Combat Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,509 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 674 developers shipped in the last year and 1,509 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 1,509 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,137
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $772 → $628 → $539 → $657 → $598 → $359 (still earning) → $130 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,137
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,397)
Top 5% $89k (exactly $89,349)
Developers, 2 yr 1,137
Released games 3,152
Announced 1,509
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 124,828 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $89k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 595 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,509 games are announced against 674 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- 2021 · $57M Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024 · $27M Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M Risk of Rain Returns 2023 · $11M BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- older $39.99 47,650 88% 1.4M $57M (exactly $57,165,705) Arc System Works
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Risk of Rain Returns older $14.99 24,795 89% 744k $11M (exactly $11,150,312) Hopoo Games
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
MARVEL Tōkon: Fighting Souls $59.99 4,934 48% 148k $8.9M (exactly $8,879,720) ARC SYSTEM WORKS CO., LTD
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Nickelodeon All-Star Brawl older $49.99 4,311 75% 129k $6.5M (exactly $6,465,207) Ludosity, Fair Play Labs
Invincible VS $49.99 3,031 76% 91k $4.5M (exactly $4,545,591) Quarter Up
Hellish Quart · EA older $17.99 8,068 88% 242k $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) Kubold
Avatar Legends: The Fighting Game $29.99 3,298 85% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211) Gameplay Group International
Mortal Kombat: Legacy Kollection $49.99 1,214 63% 36k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,636) Digital Eclipse
Terminator 2D: NO FATE $29.99 1,450 84% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,304,565) Bitmap Bureau
The Karters 2: Turbo Charged · EA $29.99 1,043 91% 31k $938k (exactly $938,387) Pixel Edge Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.