Do I ship it?

Games › Battle Royale › Battle Royale + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Arcade

Of 49 developers who shipped an Arcade Battle Royale in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build. 24 developers shipped in the last year and 100 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 100 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $358 → $1.6k → $898 → $599 → $1.6k → $120 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $240 (exactly $240)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Top 5% $6.6k (exactly $6,587)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 217
Announced 100
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Co-op
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, Colorful, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 557 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $6.5k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

GigaBash 2022 · $1.5M GENSOU Skydrift 2019 · $404k Who Wants To Be A Millionaire 2020 · $364k Shipped 2019 · $175k Hidden in Plain Sight 2014 · $166k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
GigaBash older $24.99 1,951 94% 59k $1.5M (exactly $1,462,665) Passion Republic Games
GENSOU Skydrift older $23.99 561 88% 17k $404k (exactly $403,752) illuCalab
Who Wants To Be A Millionaire older $29.99 405 52% 12k $364k (exactly $364,378) Appeal Studios, Balio Studio
Shipped older $9.99 584 96% 18k $175k (exactly $175,025) Majorariatto
Hidden in Plain Sight older $5.99 922 99% 28k $166k (exactly $165,683) Adam Spragg
Iron Core: Mech Survivor $6.99 352 73% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Soda Game Studio
Arkanoid - Eternal Battle older $9.99 245 66% 7.4k $73k (exactly $73,426) Pastagames
Among Ass older $4.99 378 80% 11k $57k (exactly $56,587) Volens Nolens Games
Soul Saber 2 older $9.99 180 59% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,946) Yamadaya
Who's Who? older $4.99 350 75% 11k $52k (exactly $52,395) G1 Playground
Dusty Derby · EA $9.99 66 100% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Geniesoft Inc.
GOKA Street · EA $4.99 44 86% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) Blay Games
Just Move:Clean City Messy Battle $15.99 11 45% 330 $5.3k (exactly $5,277) daminggede
Dirtnap · EA $7.99 19 84% 570 $4.6k (exactly $4,554) Unstable Entity, Part Time Monkey, Nitr… (Unstable Entity, Part Time Monkey, Nitroyale)
Difficult times $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Just Move Fall Dungeon Endless Abyss $15.99 8 50% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) daminggede
Turbo Balls $4.99 24 75% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) OneTwoPlay
Nitronauts $7.99 13 100% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Bubble Rocket
Moccoletti $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Consortium of Octopus

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.