Should I ship an Alien RPG?
RPG + Aliens
Of 120 developers who shipped an Alien RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 225 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $200; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×178 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 225 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $200 (exactly $200) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.1k (exactly $1,079) |
| Top 25% | $8.1k (exactly $8,084) |
| Top 5% | $112k (exactly $111,600) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 120 |
| Released games | 359 |
| Announced | 225 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 72% positive over 4,146 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $200. 9 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 225 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy 2021 · $64M 
Prey 2017 · $34M 
Aliens: Fireteam Elite 2021 · $19M 
XCOM: Enemy Unknown 2012 · $18M 
Crysis 2 - Maximum Edition 2011 · $8.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy | older | $59.99 | 35,397 93% | 1.1M | $64M (exactly $63,703,981) | Eidos-Montréal |
| | Prey | older | $29.99 | 37,759 90% | 1.1M | $34M (exactly $33,971,772) | Arkane Studios |
| | Aliens: Fireteam Elite | older | $29.99 | 21,668 80% | 650k | $19M (exactly $19,494,700) | Cold Iron Studios |
| | XCOM: Enemy Unknown | older | $14.99 | 40,345 93% | 1.2M | $18M (exactly $18,143,146) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux) |
| | Crysis 2 - Maximum Edition | older | $29.99 | 9,352 86% | 281k | $8.4M (exactly $8,413,994) | Crytek Studios |
 | Space Hulk: Deathwing Enhanced Edition | older | $29.99 | 9,094 72% | 273k | $8.2M (exactly $8,181,872) | Streum On Studio |
 | XCOM®: Chimera Squad | older | $9.99 | 20,602 71% | 618k | $6.2M (exactly $6,174,419) | Firaxis Games |
 | ELEX II | older | $49.99 | 4,015 73% | 120k | $6.0M (exactly $6,021,296) | Piranha Bytes |
 | Phoenix Point | older | $24.99 | 5,375 73% | 161k | $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) | Snapshot Games Inc. |
 | Eastshade | older | $24.99 | 5,183 89% | 155k | $3.9M (exactly $3,885,695) | Eastshade Studios |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | Every Day We Fight | · EA | $29.99 | 385 72% | 12k | $346k (exactly $346,384) | Signal Space Lab |
 | Project L33T: Founders Edition | $19.99 | 525 47% | 16k | $315k (exactly $314,842) | Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games | |
 | Galaxy Princess Zorana | $24.99 | 154 88% | 4.6k | $115k (exactly $115,454) | Hanako Games | |
 | Dead in Antares | $19.99 | 189 77% | 5.7k | $113k (exactly $113,343) | Ishtar Games | |
 | 愚人船 NARRENSCHIFF | · EA | $12.00 | 310 95% | 9.3k | $112k (exactly $111,600) | Anonymous, Anonymous |
 | Shinehill | $10.99 | 265 95% | 8.0k | $87k (exactly $87,370) | Peach Bite | |
 | Pawn Planet | $9.99 | 280 71% | 8.4k | $84k (exactly $83,916) | Gambol Games | |
 | Ship of Heroes | $29.99 | 91 27% | 2.7k | $82k (exactly $81,873) | Heroic Games Corporation | |
 | Stellar Dream - Part 1 | $14.99 | 129 87% | 3.9k | $58k (exactly $58,011) | Winterlook Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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