Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure RTS?

RTS + Adventure

Of 91 developers who shipped an Adventure RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 167 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 167 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 167 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 91
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $1.1k → $1.5k → $1.6k → $980 → $599 → $600 (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 91
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $5.0k (exactly $5,032)
Top 5% $249k (exactly $249,444)
Developers, 2 yr 91
Released games 415
Announced 167
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.98 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.98 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 7,252 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $750, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 67 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 167 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Age of Empires II (Retired) older $19.99 84,818 95% 2.5M $51M (exactly $50,865,355) Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun older $39.99 30,845 96% 925k $37M (exactly $37,004,746) Mimimi Games
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
Age of Mythology: Extended Edition older $29.99 31,869 93% 956k $29M (exactly $28,672,539) SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotte… (SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack older $19.99 36,153 97% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,680,954) Petroglyph
Total War: ATTILA older $19.99 26,918 82% 808k $16M (exactly $16,142,725) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Stronghold Crusader 2 older $39.99 12,619 73% 379k $15M (exactly $15,139,014) Firefly Studios
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Demon Lord: Just a Block $12.99 2,065 96% 62k $805k (exactly $804,730) YuWave
Airborne Empire $29.99 852 86% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) The Wandering Band LLC
IDUN - Frontline Survival $14.99 685 77% 21k $308k (exactly $308,044) IDUN Interactive
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
Wartorn $34.99 130 73% 3.9k $136k (exactly $136,461) Stray Kite Studios
Moon Corona · EA $13.99 210 82% 6.3k $88k (exactly $88,137) 不倒龙工作室, Budaolong Studio
Dust Raiders $15.99 160 64% 4.8k $77k (exactly $76,752) Vixa Games
Kingdom Ascension $11.99 200 82% 6.0k $72k (exactly $71,940) RainRingStudio
Lewd Dungeon Manager 🔞 $14.99 139 66% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Lewd Star

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.