Should I ship an Adventure RPG?
RPG + Adventure
Of 3,255 developers who shipped an Adventure RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6,801 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $890k, ×1424 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 6,801 games are announced against 1,886 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) |
| Top 25% | $33k (exactly $32,987) |
| Top 5% | $894k (exactly $894,153) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 3,255 |
| Released games | 13,576 |
| Announced | 6,801 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG, Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 1,465,668 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 1,908 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6,801 games are announced against 1,886 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B 
Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B 
Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B 
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Cyberpunk 2077 | older | $59.99 | 883,400 87% | 27M | $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Black Myth: Wukong | older | $59.99 | 881,186 96% | 26M | $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) | Game Science |
| | Baldur's Gate 3 | older | $59.99 | 755,010 96% | 23M | $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) | Larian Studios |
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | DARK SOULS™ III | older | $59.99 | 278,034 94% | 8.3M | $500M (exactly $500,377,790) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
 | Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition | older | $59.99 | 259,508 95% | 7.8M | $467M (exactly $467,036,548) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | Terraria | older | $9.99 | 1,240,388 97% | 37M | $372M (exactly $371,744,284) | Re-Logic |
 | Palworld | $29.99 | 411,947 94% | 12M | $371M (exactly $370,628,716) | Pocketpair | |
 | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
 | Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 | $49.99 | 181,667 95% | 5.5M | $272M (exactly $272,446,000) | Sandfall Interactive | |
 | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
 | Crimson Desert Enhanced | $69.99 | 115,056 83% | 3.5M | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) | Pearl Abyss | |
 | Monster Hunter Wilds | $39.99 | 200,984 52% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $241,120,505) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Path of Exile 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 167,730 76% | 5.0M | $151M (exactly $150,906,681) | Grinding Gear Games |
 | Borderlands 4 | $69.99 | 57,874 59% | 1.7M | $122M (exactly $121,518,038) | Gearbox Software | |
 | Dying Light: The Beast | $59.99 | 59,318 87% | 1.8M | $107M (exactly $106,754,605) | Techland | |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered | $49.99 | 59,690 76% | 1.8M | $90M (exactly $89,517,093) | Bethesda Game Studios, Virtuos |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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