Do I ship it?

Games › Battle Royale › Battle Royale + Action RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action RPG Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Action RPG

Only 18 developers shipped an Action RPG Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mistfall Hunter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 48 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 48 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Action RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $239 → $59 → $30 (still earning) → $8.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + Action RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $148 (exactly $148)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $12,028,936)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 81
Announced 48
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, Action RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Online Co-Op, PvP
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cartoony, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 54% positive over 16,279 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $12M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mistfall Hunter 2026 · $12M RUSSIA BATTLEGROUNDS 2018 · $340k Vienkiemis 2026 · EA · $17k Code Velocity 2026 · $8.9k Hentai Mission Ukraine 2022 · $8.4k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
RUSSIA BATTLEGROUNDS older $2.99 3,788 77% 114k $340k (exactly $339,784) Agafonoff
Vienkiemis · EA $12.99 44 100% 1.3k $17k (exactly $17,147) dssob, SMEIVIS
Code Velocity $2.99 99 100% 3.0k $8.9k (exactly $8,880) STIM GAMES
Hentai Mission Ukraine older $1.99 140 91% 4.2k $8.4k (exactly $8,358) Who We Are Games
HENTAI: MISSION BOMBASS older $1.99 100 94% 3.0k $6.0k (exactly $5,970) Who We Are Games
Adventurer's Gambit: Dungeons of Fortune $12.99 11 81% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,287) Astana Games
Maniac Path 3 $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Gamesforgames
鬼灵的冒险GUILING's Adventure $1.99 54 94% 1.6k $3.2k (exactly $3,224) 硅晶石工作室Sicrystal Studio
Taoist priest Yan older $4.99 17 100% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) XiGeHong
Toilet Battle $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) BBK
Drone Fire $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) QplusQ
HAPPY ZONE - Battle Royale $0.99 5 80% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Prtyroom
Battle $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) DIG Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.