Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Action Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Roguelike RPG?

RPG + Action Roguelike

Of 876 developers who shipped an Action Roguelike RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,428 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×985 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 1,428 games are announced against 530 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 1,428 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Action Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 876
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $2.3k → $1.8k → $2.3k → $2.1k → $1.6k → $1.3k (still earning) → $987 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Action Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 876
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,566)
Top 5% $619k (exactly $618,787)
Developers, 2 yr 876
Released games 2,119
Announced 1,428
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Action Roguelike; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 315,352 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 412 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,428 games are announced against 530 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hades 2020 · $214M Hades II 2025 · $103M Gunfire Reborn 2021 · $53M Noita 2020 · $49M Escape From Duckov 2025 · $45M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
Gunfire Reborn older $19.99 88,536 93% 2.7M $53M (exactly $53,095,039) Gunfire Reborn Studio
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Vampire Survivors older $4.99 251,686 98% 7.6M $38M (exactly $37,677,394) poncle
嗜血印 Bloody Spell older $24.99 34,184 89% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,627,745) 艺龙游戏
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
Neon Abyss older $31.49 19,709 86% 591k $19M (exactly $18,619,092) Veewo Games
Ravenswatch $24.99 16,908 79% 507k $13M (exactly $12,675,928) Passtech Games
Shape of Dreams $24.99 15,769 89% 473k $12M (exactly $11,822,019) Lizard Smoothie
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
SULFUR · EA $24.99 9,641 87% 289k $7.2M (exactly $7,227,858) Perfect Random
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
Rotwood $29.99 7,459 74% 224k $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862) Klei Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.