Do I ship it?

GamesNaval CombatNaval Combat + Action Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Roguelike Naval Combat game?

Naval Combat + Action Roguelike

Only 18 developers shipped an Action Roguelike Naval Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DAVY x JONES, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×334 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 27 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + Action Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $359 → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Naval Combat + Action Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $3,979)
Top 5% $210k (exactly $209,943)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 34
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat, Action Roguelike; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 916 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $3.9k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
King of Seas older $24.99 603 57% 18k $452k (exactly $452,069) 3DClouds
DAVY x JONES · EA $17.99 389 82% 12k $210k (exactly $209,943) PARASIGHT
Sea of Survivors · EA older $6.99 415 81% 12k $87k (exactly $87,026) Nah Yeah Games
Airships: Lost Flotilla $8.99 290 92% 8.7k $78k (exactly $78,213) David Stark
Curse of Pirates $9.99 121 80% 3.6k $36k (exactly $36,264) Funky Parrot
Fluffy Sailors $12.99 29 79% 870 $11k (exactly $11,301) Skaldery Games
Swords and Sandals Pirates older $6.99 45 68% 1.4k $9.4k (exactly $9,436) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Maritime Calling older $7.99 31 51% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Tiamat Games
Ruiga Pirates · EA older $4.99 38 57% 1.1k $5.7k (exactly $5,689) Valentware Games LTD
Ocean Survivors $3.49 38 97% 1.1k $4.0k (exactly $3,979) Aremji Games
Pirates: Rogue's Fortune · EA $12.99 10 100% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) NINPO Game Studio
Lord O' Pirates $4.99 21 85% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) One Flow Man
Kamikaze Survivors $9.99 9 77% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) DaboSoft
Ore Bastards · EA $8.99 4 75% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) INDIELLIGENT
Pirate Twist · EA $4.67 5 100% 150 $700 (exactly $700) BTG Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.