Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Action Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Roguelike Fighting game?

Fighting + Action Roguelike

Only 19 developers shipped an Action Roguelike Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Absolum, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×4704 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 32 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Action Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1M → $628k → $1.6k → $1.6k → $2.7k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Action Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $628k (exactly $628,486)
Top 5% $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 59
Announced 32
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Action Roguelike; all of the top 25% also carry Action, Beat 'em up, Co-op
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 27,491 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $620k, 1 in 20 over $7.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
Rotwood $29.99 7,459 74% 224k $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862) Klei Entertainment
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
Curse of the Dead Gods older $19.99 7,807 84% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,858) Passtech Games
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Splintered Fate $29.99 4,143 83% 124k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,457) Super Evil Megacorp
UNDERDOGS older $29.99 2,788 97% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,508,364) One Hamsa
Until You Fall older $24.99 2,883 94% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,161,385) Schell Games
Tears of Metal · EA $24.99 2,359 85% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,768,542) Paper Cult
Spiritfall older $19.99 1,844 92% 55k $1.1M (exactly $1,105,847) Gentle Giant
Clone Drone in the Hyperdome $19.99 1,048 91% 31k $628k (exactly $628,486) Doborog Games
Karate Survivor $4.99 2,997 85% 90k $449k (exactly $448,651) Alawar
Mortal Rite · EA $14.99 53 62% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Round Toast Studios
Pure Instinct Katana $24.99 4 75% 120 $3.0k (exactly $2,999) Pure Instinct Studio
Nightmarena $5.99 15 93% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) Colo Coko
Darkest Mine $4.99 14 92% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Crazy Rooster Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.