Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Action Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Action Roguelike?

Crafting + Action Roguelike

Of 132 developers who shipped a Crafting Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 259 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1250 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 259 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 259 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Action Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 132
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.1k → $1.6k → $4.8k → $2.7k → $3.4k → $3.6k (still earning) → $958 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Action Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 132
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,186)
Top 5% $785k (exactly $785,176)
Developers, 2 yr 132
Released games 250
Announced 259
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Action Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Roguelike
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 98,662 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 65 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 259 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Noita 2020 · $49M Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M MISERY 2025 · $7.8M Magicraft 2024 · $7.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
Void Bastards older $29.99 3,888 86% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,034) Blue Manchu
Pax Autocratica · EA $29.99 3,202 91% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839) Multiverse
Feed the Cups · EA older $15.99 4,708 72% 141k $2.3M (exactly $2,258,428) Vambear Games
Magicite older $9.99 5,802 85% 174k $1.7M (exactly $1,738,859) Sean Young
Deadly Days: Roadtrip · EA $14.99 2,855 87% 86k $1.3M (exactly $1,283,894) Pixelsplit
Wild Woods · EA $14.99 1,746 78% 52k $785k (exactly $785,176) Octofox Games
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Anomaly President · EA $14.99 1,376 91% 41k $619k (exactly $618,787) Phew Phew Games
GRAIN ROT $9.99 1,845 88% 55k $553k (exactly $552,946) Beck & Branch Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.