Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Top-Down Shooter?

4 Player Local + Top-Down Shooter

Of 45 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 25 developers shipped in the last year and 62 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 62 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $598 → $1.2k → $958 → $299 → $299 → $809 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 5% $5.9k (exactly $5,872)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 184
Announced 62
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local, Top-Down Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 298 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $5.8k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. Nearly all of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition older $19.99 25,663 90% 770k $15M (exactly $15,390,101) Arrowhead Game Studios
How to Survive 2 older $14.99 8,641 69% 259k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,858) Eko Software
Nine Parchments older $19.99 4,123 77% 124k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,563) Frozenbyte
Yet Another Zombie Defense HD older $3.99 2,561 84% 77k $307k (exactly $306,552) Awesome Games Studio
Metaverse Keeper / 元能失控 · EA older $14.99 588 77% 18k $264k (exactly $264,424) Sparks Games
Nation Red older $2.99 2,208 88% 66k $198k (exactly $198,058) DiezelPower
Shadowgrounds Survivor older $9.99 583 62% 17k $175k (exactly $174,725) Frozenbyte
Hyper Jam older $12.99 431 93% 13k $168k (exactly $167,961) Bit Dragon
Jamestown+ older $17.99 234 88% 7.0k $126k (exactly $126,290) Final Form Games
INVERSUS Deluxe older $14.99 271 88% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Hypersect
BattleCap $11.99 159 96% 4.8k $57k (exactly $57,192) MechAlmond Productions
SUPERVERSE $9.99 37 70% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Superverse Industries
Paws Against the World $6.99 28 78% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) GoldenGod Games
Pulsar Crash $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Little Doctor Games
Buhei $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Wild Garlic Games
Thumb Tanks $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) thumbcramp
MADHOUSE · EA $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Paul Hubans
Carpoon $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Tom Arnold
Rail Fights $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Korner Games
Chaotic Cats $3.99 12 100% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) Headbounce

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.