Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Multiple Endings game?

4 Player Local + Multiple Endings

Only 10 developers shipped a 4 Player Local Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, HexBreaker Ⅱ, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×7.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $1.6k. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 10 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $1.8k → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,552)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,597)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 5% $629k (exactly $629,085)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 25
Announced 10
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local, Multiple Endings
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 67% positive over 1,208 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  4. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  5. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  6. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  7. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  10. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligencePoor odds11 devs · median $6.9k · 12 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lost Castle / 失落城堡 older $9.99 18,417 87% 553k $5.5M (exactly $5,519,575) Hunter Studio
HexBreaker Ⅱ $19.99 1,049 64% 31k $629k (exactly $629,085) 灵煦工作室
The Yawhg older $9.99 1,131 84% 34k $339k (exactly $338,961) Damian Sommer, Emily Carroll
Sign of Silence older $4.99 1,787 52% 54k $268k (exactly $267,514) Renderise
KunKun dream Startles the Soul older $2.99 427 79% 13k $38k (exactly $38,302) AIKUN
Super Slam Dunk Touchdown older $15.00 41 75% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,450) Tipping Goat LLC
Concerto on White: Cajon Story $8.99 59 94% 1.8k $16k (exactly $15,912) C11 Games
Fhtagn! - Tales of the Creeping Madness older $9.99 47 95% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Design Imps
Forehead Chip $9.99 18 94% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Naturally Intelligent
Anomaly Protocol · EA $4.99 33 72% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) Oriland
Zone 6 $11.99 10 100% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Ullbors
MADHOUSE · EA $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Paul Hubans
RADIOACTIVE INC. $1.99 26 61% 780 $1.6k (exactly $1,552) 45DK
Fortune Crafter $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) VIKTOR LUBIANSKII
Cat Packs - Bushido Blade $24.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Flood City Games
Slime Tales $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) BK202

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.