Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led 4 Player Local game?

4 Player Local + Female Protagonist

Only 15 developers shipped a Female-Led 4 Player Local game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Scott Pilgrim EX, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.5k, ×18 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×862 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 19 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $7.2k → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $4.2k (exactly $4,190)
Median $8.5k (exactly $8,544)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $43,756)
Top 5% $410k (exactly $409,629)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 53
Announced 19
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Multiplayer, Action RPG
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, Retro, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,002 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.2k, median $8.5k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligencePoor odds11 devs · median $6.9k · 12 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Puyo Puyo™Tetris® older $19.99 4,679 84% 140k $2.8M (exactly $2,805,996) Sonic Team, Bitbaboon
Mother Russia Bleeds older $14.99 4,354 87% 131k $2.0M (exactly $1,957,994) Le Cartel Studio
Puyo Puyo™ Tetris® 2 older $19.99 2,399 82% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,438,680) SEGA
Full Metal Furies older $19.99 2,108 91% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,264,168) Cellar Door Games
Phantom Breaker: Battle Grounds Classic older $14.99 2,556 83% 77k $1.1M (exactly $1,149,433) MAGES. Inc.
Assault Android Cactus+ older $19.99 1,325 94% 40k $795k (exactly $794,602) Witch Beam
LARA CROFT AND THE TEMPLE OF OSIRIS™ older $19.99 1,262 68% 38k $757k (exactly $756,821) Crystal Dynamics
Scott Pilgrim EX $28.99 471 85% 14k $410k (exactly $409,629) Tribute Games Inc.
The Yawhg older $9.99 1,131 84% 34k $339k (exactly $338,961) Damian Sommer, Emily Carroll
Wild Guns Reloaded older $14.99 435 88% 13k $196k (exactly $195,620) NatsumeAtari
Phantom Breaker: Battle Grounds Ultimate $24.99 205 84% 6.2k $154k (exactly $153,688) Rocket Panda Games Japan
Ys vs. Trails in the Sky: Alternative Saga $34.99 59 94% 1.8k $62k (exactly $61,932) Nihon Falcom
Wendigo Blue · EA $9.99 146 90% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) EndlessFluff
Buccaneers Shipshape $12.99 31 87% 930 $12k (exactly $12,081) Merso Entertainment
Touhou Volleyball Danmaku $9.99 40 100% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) Compact TH
4PGP $19.99 19 73% 570 $11k (exactly $11,394) 株式会社3goo , Vision Reelle
Welcome to Empyreum $14.99 19 78% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Tapioca Games
It’s Quiz Time: GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS™ 2026 Edition $29.99 8 100% 240 $7.2k (exactly $7,198) Snap Finger Click
Ed & Edda: GRAND PRIX – Racing Champions $39.99 4 100% 120 $4.8k (exactly $4,799) Tivola Games GmbH, Funatics Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.