Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + 4 Player Local

Only 11 developers shipped a 4 Player Local Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Floorball League 2010, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $1.5k. Revenue is up 2300% on the market; 15 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 2300% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $4.8k → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,440)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,609)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $26,973)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 31
Announced 15
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2300% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, 4 Player Local
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 295 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $26k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
Barony older $19.99 12,714 90% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,624,586) Turning Wheel LLC
Super Mega Baseball 3 older $44.99 1,832 92% 55k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,650) Metalhead Software Inc.
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
Cue Club 2: Pool & Snooker older $18.99 858 90% 26k $489k (exactly $488,803) Bulldog Interactive
College Bowl older $24.99 263 84% 7.9k $197k (exactly $197,171) Super Pixel Games
Barro Racing older $4.99 1,250 83% 38k $187k (exactly $187,125) SC Jogos
Barro 22 older $4.99 868 89% 26k $130k (exactly $129,940) SC Jogos
Barro GT older $4.99 817 84% 25k $122k (exactly $122,305) SC Jogos
Barro F22 older $4.99 621 84% 19k $93k (exactly $92,964) SC Jogos
Floorball League 2010 $9.99 90 90% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) Prodigium Game Studios
True Disc Golf $24.99 32 90% 960 $24k (exactly $23,990) Sportsmanlike Games
おしゃべりキング!コミュ力診断ゲーム $8.99 69 97% 2.1k $19k (exactly $18,609) Hyper Index, Inc.
Bowlers : The bowling experience $15.99 10 80% 300 $4.8k (exactly $4,797) Solid9Games
Summer Delicious Simulator $3.99 35 71% 1.1k $4.2k (exactly $4,190) BitRaiders Games
Casual Sport Series: Tennis $5.99 13 92% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Revulo Games
Market Empire Simulator $4.99 14 78% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Coffeeshake Games
Casual Sport Series: Badminton $4.99 10 60% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Revulo Games
Just Eat Sushi! $3.00 16 93% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,440) Aurora Colored Bird
Casual Sport Series: Hockey $5.99 6 33% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) Revulo Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.