Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Runner?

4 Player Local + Runner

Only 12 developers shipped a 4 Player Local Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Jelly Bubble, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $50k, ×107 the market median. Revenue is up 500% on the market; 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 500% on the market, 16 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $120 → $5.1k → $719 → $1.9k
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,397)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,791)
Top 5% $51k (exactly $50,949)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 39
Announced 16
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 500% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local, Runner
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 415 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $50k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Action Henk older $14.99 295 92% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) RageSquid
Nippon Marathon older $14.99 274 89% 8.2k $123k (exactly $123,218) Onion Soup Interactive
Jelly Bubble $9.99 170 99% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,949) BINGOBELL
Runbow older $14.99 107 85% 3.2k $48k (exactly $48,118) 13AM Games
Hot Lap Racing older $29.99 51 64% 1.5k $46k (exactly $45,885) Zero Games Studios
This Is No Cave $6.99 127 96% 3.8k $27k (exactly $26,632) monome.studio
Hashire HEBEREKE: EX $21.99 30 100% 900 $20k (exactly $19,791) CRT GAMES
X Run 3 older $8.99 19 68% 570 $5.1k (exactly $5,124) Andy Law
MineRalph older $9.99 17 100% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Chop Chop Games
4 Rush Together $4.99 29 86% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) Honglizi
Dino-Ducks Dash $2.99 30 96% 900 $2.7k (exactly $2,691) Duckosaurus Games
Nitro Turtles $7.99 10 100% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) Lucky Turtle
G-Switch 4: Creator $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Serius Games
Mistress Of The Tower $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Pipot Studio
Bouncy Escape $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Daniel Sitkiewicz
MQ: Rise Above $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) 99ADM

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.