Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local RPG?

RPG + 4 Player Local

Of 31 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $920k, ×1477 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 41 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 41 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $116k → $7.0k → $4.2k → $48k → $2.4k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,192)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $50,949)
Top 5% $927k (exactly $927,368)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 126
Announced 41
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, 4 Player Local; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action RPG
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 14,026 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $920k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Castle Crashers® older $14.99 109,654 96% 3.3M $49M (exactly $49,311,404) The Behemoth
Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions older $59.99 5,072 73% 152k $9.1M (exactly $9,128,078) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Barony older $19.99 12,714 90% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,624,586) Turning Wheel LLC
Lost Castle 2 $17.99 10,851 78% 326k $5.9M (exactly $5,856,285) Hunter Studio
Magicka older $9.99 19,174 84% 575k $5.7M (exactly $5,746,448) Arrowhead Game Studios
Lost Castle / 失落城堡 older $9.99 18,417 87% 553k $5.5M (exactly $5,519,575) Hunter Studio
Magicka 2 older $14.99 9,486 82% 285k $4.3M (exactly $4,265,854) Pieces Interactive
Gauntlet™ Slayer Edition older $19.99 6,690 81% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,011,993) Arrowhead Game Studios
How to Survive 2 older $14.99 8,641 69% 259k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,858) Eko Software
Chronicon older $13.99 8,822 94% 265k $3.7M (exactly $3,702,593) Subworld
Tales of Graces f Remastered $39.99 773 87% 23k $927k (exactly $927,368) TOSE CO., LTD.
HexBreaker Ⅱ $19.99 1,049 64% 31k $629k (exactly $629,085) 灵煦工作室
DuneCrawl $19.99 568 74% 17k $341k (exactly $340,630) Alientrap
DOKAPON! Sword of Fury $24.99 354 85% 11k $265k (exactly $265,394) Sting
Ys vs. Trails in the Sky: Alternative Saga $34.99 59 94% 1.8k $62k (exactly $61,932) Nihon Falcom
Nicktoons & The Dice of Destiny $49.99 39 92% 1.2k $58k (exactly $58,488) Petit Fabrik, Fair Play Labs
Jelly Bubble $9.99 170 99% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,949) BINGOBELL
INTO EVIL · EA $14.99 106 92% 3.2k $48k (exactly $47,668) Mind's Eye Games
Shoresy: Legends of the North $19.99 57 78% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Treewood Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.