Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Roguelite?

4 Player Local + Roguelite

Of 45 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $57k, ×120 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 62 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 62 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $263k → $1.9k → $95k → $5.5k → $450 → $7.8k → $3.0k (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,996)
Top 5% $57k (exactly $57,192)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 103
Announced 62
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local, Roguelite; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Co-Op, Co-op
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 12,273 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $750, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $57k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PlateUp! older $19.99 18,500 94% 555k $11M (exactly $11,094,450) It's happening
Lost Castle 2 $17.99 10,851 78% 326k $5.9M (exactly $5,856,285) Hunter Studio
Lost Castle / 失落城堡 older $9.99 18,417 87% 553k $5.5M (exactly $5,519,575) Hunter Studio
Tape to Tape · EA older $19.99 3,464 92% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,077,361) Excellent Rectangle
Legend of Dungeon older $9.99 1,220 72% 37k $366k (exactly $365,634) Robot Loves Kitty
ToeJam & Earl: Back in the Groove! older $14.99 721 89% 22k $324k (exactly $324,234) HumaNature Studios
A Robot Named Fight! older $12.99 796 88% 24k $310k (exactly $310,201) Morningstar Game Studio
Metaverse Keeper / 元能失控 · EA older $14.99 588 77% 18k $264k (exactly $264,424) Sparks Games
This Means Warp older $19.99 438 71% 13k $263k (exactly $262,669) Outlier
Son of a Witch older $23.99 350 84% 11k $252k (exactly $251,895) Bigosaur
Bang Bang Barrage $7.99 757 95% 23k $181k (exactly $181,453) Monkey Bread
BattleCap $11.99 159 96% 4.8k $57k (exactly $57,192) MechAlmond Productions
INTO EVIL · EA $14.99 106 92% 3.2k $48k (exactly $47,668) Mind's Eye Games
This Is No Cave $6.99 127 96% 3.8k $27k (exactly $26,632) monome.studio
Rogue Fist $8.99 92 89% 2.8k $25k (exactly $24,812) Wetcoat Games
Cursed Blood · EA $14.99 37 75% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) David Marquardt Studios
Concerto on White: Cajon Story $8.99 59 94% 1.8k $16k (exactly $15,912) C11 Games
Calcium Chaos $9.99 52 96% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Lunch Money Games
Wild Rumble $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Mean Mink

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.