Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Puzzle game?

4 Player Local + Puzzle

Of 38 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×672 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 66 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 66 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $1.1k → $1.1k → $2.2k → $719 → $629 → $180 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $597 (exactly $597)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,613)
Top 5% $319k (exactly $319,109)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 175
Announced 66
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local, Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Local Co-Op, Local Multiplayer, Online Co-Op
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Family Friendly, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 1,646 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince older $29.99 11,712 88% 351k $11M (exactly $10,537,286) Frozenbyte
Tricky Towers older $14.99 12,390 90% 372k $5.6M (exactly $5,571,783) WeirdBeard
Puyo Puyo™Tetris® older $19.99 4,679 84% 140k $2.8M (exactly $2,805,996) Sonic Team, Bitbaboon
Clue/Cluedo: Classic Edition older $16.99 3,096 88% 93k $1.6M (exactly $1,578,031) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Puyo Puyo™ Tetris® 2 older $19.99 2,399 82% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,438,680) SEGA
Full Metal Furies older $19.99 2,108 91% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,264,168) Cellar Door Games
Moving Out older $24.99 1,671 82% 50k $1.3M (exactly $1,252,749) SMG Studio, Devm Games
PICO PARK 2 older $8.99 4,045 88% 121k $1.1M (exactly $1,090,936) TECOPARK, Gemdrops, Inc.
BADLAND: Game of the Year Edition older $9.99 2,801 86% 84k $839k (exactly $839,460) Frogmind
FORCED: Slightly Better Edition older $14.99 1,778 74% 53k $800k (exactly $799,567) BetaDwarf
Biped 2 $14.99 813 71% 24k $366k (exactly $365,606) META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy… (META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy Studios)
Tetris® Forever $34.99 304 74% 9.1k $319k (exactly $319,109) Digital Eclipse
SUPER BOMBERMAN COLLECTION $19.99 294 87% 8.8k $176k (exactly $176,312) RED ART GAMES
Puzzle Bobble Everybubble! $39.99 22 59% 660 $26k (exactly $26,393) TAITO CORP., ArcSystemWorks
Beacon Patrol $11.99 70 97% 2.1k $25k (exactly $25,179) Shapes and Dreams, BrutalHack
TopplePOP: Bungee Blockbusters · EA $14.99 35 97% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) ArkimA
Educational Family Games $24.99 10 100% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) Crazysoft Limited
SusDoku: Clues & Suspects $4.99 37 35% 1.1k $5.5k (exactly $5,539) MyNeuronal
Lastbane · EA $3.99 39 25% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) Lionstone Studio
Reaktor $6.99 22 90% 660 $4.6k (exactly $4,613) Reaktor Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.