Do I ship it?

Games › 4 Player Local › 4 Player Local + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Procedural Generation game?

4 Player Local + Procedural Generation

Of 25 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 13 developers shipped in the last year and 57 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 57 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $1.8k → $479 → $598 → $27k → $0 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 5% $29k (exactly $29,385)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 97
Announced 57
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local, Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Local Co-Op
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 483 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $29k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Spelunky 2 2020 · $12M PlateUp! 2022 · $11M Unrailed! 2020 · $8.3M Chronicon 2020 · $3.7M Legend of Dungeon 2013 · $366k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spelunky 2 older $19.99 19,736 93% 592k $12M (exactly $11,835,679) Mossmouth, BlitWorks
PlateUp! older $19.99 18,500 94% 555k $11M (exactly $11,094,450) It's happening
Unrailed! older $19.99 13,789 93% 414k $8.3M (exactly $8,269,263) Indoor Astronaut
Chronicon older $13.99 8,822 94% 265k $3.7M (exactly $3,702,593) Subworld
Legend of Dungeon older $9.99 1,220 72% 37k $366k (exactly $365,634) Robot Loves Kitty
Super Motherload older $14.99 784 77% 24k $353k (exactly $352,565) XGen Studios
A Robot Named Fight! older $12.99 796 88% 24k $310k (exactly $310,201) Morningstar Game Studio
Son of a Witch older $23.99 350 84% 11k $252k (exactly $251,895) Bigosaur
TowerClimb older $14.99 317 89% 9.5k $143k (exactly $142,555) Davioware and Quazi
Hive Jump older $19.99 189 68% 5.7k $113k (exactly $113,343) Graphite Lab
INTO EVIL · EA $14.99 106 92% 3.2k $48k (exactly $47,668) Mind's Eye Games
Up to Par $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) It's Anecdotal
This Is No Cave $6.99 127 96% 3.8k $27k (exactly $26,632) monome.studio
Rogue Fist $8.99 92 89% 2.8k $25k (exactly $24,812) Wetcoat Games
SusDoku: Clues & Suspects $4.99 37 35% 1.1k $5.5k (exactly $5,539) MyNeuronal
Anomaly Protocol · EA $4.99 33 72% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) Oriland
Jumalien $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Kevin Pedatte
Hunters In The Dark · EA $7.99 16 100% 480 $3.8k (exactly $3,835) Wild Ox Studios, Utopia Machina
Rattus Velocitas $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) Hedgehog Arts
All About Maze $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Bug Farmer Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.