Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Perma Death game?

4 Player Local + Perma Death

Only 7 developers shipped a 4 Player Local Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, INTO EVIL, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $120 against a market of $480. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 15 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $120 (exactly $120)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,385)
Top 5% $48k (exactly $47,668)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 27
Announced 15
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local, Perma Death
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 22,664 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $120, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $47k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 15 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spelunky 2 older $19.99 19,736 93% 592k $12M (exactly $11,835,679) Mossmouth, BlitWorks
Legend of Dungeon older $9.99 1,220 72% 37k $366k (exactly $365,634) Robot Loves Kitty
Ants Took My Eyeball older $12.99 248 93% 7.4k $97k (exactly $96,646) Bosmic Forge
Tallowmere 2: Curse of the Kittens older $9.99 318 80% 9.5k $95k (exactly $95,305) Chris McFarland
Tallowmere older $3.99 767 90% 23k $92k (exactly $91,810) Chris McFarland
INTO EVIL · EA $14.99 106 92% 3.2k $48k (exactly $47,668) Mind's Eye Games
Bombslinger older $11.99 121 78% 3.6k $44k (exactly $43,524) Mode4
Up to Par $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) It's Anecdotal
Seals of the Bygone · EA older $12.99 68 83% 2.0k $27k (exactly $26,500) rologfos
Gerty older $14.99 31 83% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Spawn Point OSK
RAGMONTON ENDLESS for save indie game $3.99 1 0% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Sinned Games
Fortune Crafter $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) VIKTOR LUBIANSKII
MQ: Rise Above $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) 99ADM
People and Zombies $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) HUSITANG
Voxel Shooter $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Stase Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.