Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval 4 Player Local game?

4 Player Local + Medieval

Only 17 developers shipped a Medieval 4 Player Local game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Fist, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×6.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×2.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $24k, ×52 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 41 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 41 announced, ×6.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $449 → $5.0k → $719 → $5.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $5.6k (exactly $5,576)
Top 5% $25k (exactly $24,812)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 67
Announced 41
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Co-Op, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 190 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $960, 1 in 4 over $5.5k, 1 in 20 over $24k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Castle Crashers® older $14.99 109,654 96% 3.3M $49M (exactly $49,311,404) The Behemoth
No Heroes Here older $14.99 375 88% 11k $169k (exactly $168,638) Mad Mimic
Hammerwatch Anniversary Edition older $19.99 193 80% 5.8k $116k (exactly $115,742) Crackshell
Knight Squad older $14.99 194 89% 5.8k $87k (exactly $87,242) Chainsawesome Games
Griefhelm older $9.99 267 75% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,020) Johnny Dale Lonack
Strikers Edge older $14.99 85 70% 2.6k $38k (exactly $38,224) Fun Punch Games
King 'n Knight older $11.99 99 85% 3.0k $36k (exactly $35,610) Jérémy Entressangle
Potion Party older $9.99 90 90% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) RPGames
Rogue Fist $8.99 92 89% 2.8k $25k (exactly $24,812) Wetcoat Games
Hoplegs older $17.99 37 94% 1.1k $20k (exactly $19,969) WhyKev
Light Fingers $19.99 17 76% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Numizmatic
Otherlights · EA $19.99 15 100% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Soleil Artificiel
No Heroes Here 2 $19.99 13 61% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Mad Mimic
Micro Mages Maker $15.49 12 91% 360 $5.6k (exactly $5,576) Morphcat Games, Novasplore Games
Brigands $9.99 15 73% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Simon Rinfret, Azooloom
Boardquest: Tales of Liria $11.99 5 100% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Ramezware SL
KBF: Knight Bar Fight $3.99 13 100% 390 $1.6k (exactly $1,556) KBF Team
Agricola - The King's Farmer $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) kann zaubern
Halloween Candy Reclaim $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Sourcenity

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.