Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Fighting game?

Fighting + 4 Player Local

Of 46 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Fighting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×273 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 63 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 63 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $900k → $629 → $4.8k → $1.2k → $13k → $2.2k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Top 5% $410k (exactly $409,629)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 226
Announced 63
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, 4 Player Local; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Multiplayer, Local Co-Op
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 10,495 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Party Animals older $19.99 56,043 81% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,608,987) Recreate Games
Gang Beasts older $19.99 54,880 85% 1.6M $33M (exactly $32,911,536) Boneloaf, Rocket Science
Rivals of Aether older $29.99 33,284 96% 999k $30M (exactly $29,945,615) Aether Studios
Stick Fight: The Game older $4.99 99,952 93% 3.0M $15M (exactly $14,962,814) Landfall West
Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions older $59.99 5,072 73% 152k $9.1M (exactly $9,128,078) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios
Lethal League Blaze older $19.99 4,767 97% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,858,770) Team Reptile
Puyo Puyo™Tetris® older $19.99 4,679 84% 140k $2.8M (exactly $2,805,996) Sonic Team, Bitbaboon
SpiderHeck older $14.99 3,922 93% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) Neverjam
Rubber Bandits older $9.99 5,628 84% 169k $1.7M (exactly $1,686,712) Flashbulb
A Few Quick Matches $6.99 2,475 85% 74k $519k (exactly $519,008) Studio Bidou
Scott Pilgrim EX $28.99 471 85% 14k $410k (exactly $409,629) Tribute Games Inc.
Knock'Em Out $7.99 239 85% 7.2k $57k (exactly $57,288) BBear Studio
Shoresy: Legends of the North $19.99 57 78% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Treewood Games
Oblin Party $7.99 85 91% 2.6k $20k (exactly $20,374) Tellus Games
Dino Party $11.99 56 98% 1.7k $20k (exactly $20,143) Studio Nachtwerk
We Could Be Heroes $14.99 42 85% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) CebCode Games
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
King's Blade $8.99 49 81% 1.5k $13k (exactly $13,215) Alexey Suslin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.