Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy 4 Player Local game?

4 Player Local + Fantasy

Of 55 developers who shipped a Fantasy 4 Player Local game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×559 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 113 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 113 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $358 → $449 → $3.0k → $3.2k → $11k → $359 → $2.4k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,215)
Top 5% $265k (exactly $265,394)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 206
Announced 113
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Multiplayer, Local Co-Op
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 8,613 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince older $29.99 11,712 88% 351k $11M (exactly $10,537,286) Frozenbyte
Barony older $19.99 12,714 90% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,624,586) Turning Wheel LLC
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios
Magicka older $9.99 19,174 84% 575k $5.7M (exactly $5,746,448) Arrowhead Game Studios
Magicka 2 older $14.99 9,486 82% 285k $4.3M (exactly $4,265,854) Pieces Interactive
Gauntlet™ Slayer Edition older $19.99 6,690 81% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,011,993) Arrowhead Game Studios
Chronicon older $13.99 8,822 94% 265k $3.7M (exactly $3,702,593) Subworld
Rayman® Origins older $19.99 5,825 94% 175k $3.5M (exactly $3,493,252) Ubisoft Montpellier
Crawl older $14.99 5,625 95% 169k $2.5M (exactly $2,529,562) Powerhoof
Nine Parchments older $19.99 4,123 77% 124k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,563) Frozenbyte
Tales of Graces f Remastered $39.99 773 87% 23k $927k (exactly $927,368) TOSE CO., LTD.
DOKAPON! Sword of Fury $24.99 354 85% 11k $265k (exactly $265,394) Sting
Culdcept The First $29.99 95 74% 2.9k $85k (exactly $85,472) CITY CONNECTION
Ys vs. Trails in the Sky: Alternative Saga $34.99 59 94% 1.8k $62k (exactly $61,932) Nihon Falcom
Nicktoons & The Dice of Destiny $49.99 39 92% 1.2k $58k (exactly $58,488) Petit Fabrik, Fair Play Labs
Wendigo Blue · EA $9.99 146 90% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) EndlessFluff
Snow Bros. Wonderland $29.99 40 80% 1.2k $36k (exactly $35,988) Tatsujin, Bitwave Games, Toaplan
Rogue Fist $8.99 92 89% 2.8k $25k (exactly $24,812) Wetcoat Games
Keep the Heroes Out $19.99 35 60% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,990) Brueh Games, YarnCat Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.