Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting 4 Player Local game?

Crafting + 4 Player Local

Only 11 developers shipped a Crafting 4 Player Local game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Vacation Cafe Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $700; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×668 the market median. Revenue is up 985% on the market; 28 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 985% on the market, 28 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $4.9k → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $693 (exactly $693)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 5% $420k (exactly $419,790)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 35
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 985% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, 4 Player Local
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 816 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $700, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $700. 28 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

How to Survive 2 2016 · $3.9M Chronicon 2020 · $3.7M Robot Roller-Derby Disco Dodgeball 2015 · $677k Vacation Cafe Simulator 2026 · $420k Small World 2013 · $279k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
How to Survive 2 older $14.99 8,641 69% 259k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,858) Eko Software
Chronicon older $13.99 8,822 94% 265k $3.7M (exactly $3,702,593) Subworld
Robot Roller-Derby Disco Dodgeball older $9.99 2,258 91% 68k $677k (exactly $676,723) Erik Asmussen
Vacation Cafe Simulator $19.99 700 88% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Alice Games
Small World older $9.99 931 71% 28k $279k (exactly $279,021) Days of Wonder
Mystic Vale older $12.99 384 89% 12k $150k (exactly $149,645) Nomad Games
Potion Party older $9.99 90 90% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) RPGames
Turn the Line! · EA older $13.99 59 79% 1.8k $25k (exactly $24,762) Megatent Inc.
NeoSprint older $24.99 29 75% 870 $22k (exactly $21,741) Headless Chicken Games
Astronimo older $14.99 47 80% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Coatsink
The Artifactory $19.99 24 75% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) Berries Studios
No Heroes Here 2 $19.99 13 61% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Mad Mimic
Crafty Racer · EA $14.99 11 100% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Peterclark
Summer Delicious Simulator $3.99 35 71% 1.1k $4.2k (exactly $4,190) BitRaiders Games
Coffee, Plis $7.99 13 92% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Divertgames
Market Empire Simulator $4.99 14 78% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Coffeeshake Games
Cook Saga · EA $7.70 3 66% 90 $693 (exactly $693) Nasus Solution
Kitty Can Cook $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) FoxBot Software
Highrisers Couch Co-Op · EA $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Solar Powered Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.