Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Cooking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Cooking game?

4 Player Local + Cooking

Only 14 developers shipped a 4 Player Local Cooking game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Vacation Cafe Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×884 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Cooking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $300 → $897 → $3.1k → $1.4k (still earning) → $420k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Cooking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $897 (exactly $897)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,653)
Top 5% $420k (exactly $419,790)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 57
Announced 25
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local, Cooking
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,150 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Overcooked! 2 older $24.99 61,956 90% 1.9M $46M (exactly $46,448,413) Ghost Town Games Ltd., Team17
PlateUp! older $19.99 18,500 94% 555k $11M (exactly $11,094,450) It's happening
Overcooked older $16.99 13,528 89% 406k $6.9M (exactly $6,895,222) Ghost Town Games Ltd.
Overcooked! All You Can Eat older $39.99 5,744 73% 172k $6.9M (exactly $6,891,077) Team17 Digital, Ghost Town Games
Cook, Serve, Delicious! older $12.99 3,713 95% 111k $1.4M (exactly $1,446,956) Vertigo Gaming Inc.
Vacation Cafe Simulator $19.99 700 88% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Alice Games
Diner Bros older $9.99 817 90% 25k $245k (exactly $244,855) JAYFLGAMES
Bone's Cafe older $14.99 340 96% 10k $153k (exactly $152,898) Acute Owl Studio
Witchtastic older $17.99 238 92% 7.1k $128k (exactly $128,449) Red Fur Games
Diner Bros 2 $14.99 147 87% 4.4k $66k (exactly $66,106) JAYFLGAMES
Let's Cook Together 2 $23.99 37 75% 1.1k $27k (exactly $26,629) Yellow Dot
Party Club $4.99 158 72% 4.7k $24k (exactly $23,653) Lucid11 Interactive
The Artifactory $19.99 24 75% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) Berries Studios
Summer Delicious Simulator $3.99 35 71% 1.1k $4.2k (exactly $4,190) BitRaiders Games
Coffee, Plis $7.99 13 92% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Divertgames
PizzaPanic $8.99 10 80% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Catnip Lab
Just Eat Sushi! $3.00 16 93% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,440) Aurora Colored Bird
Premier Servi $2.99 10 100% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Florent Baris, Gaspard Thirion, Mickaël… (Florent Baris, Gaspard Thirion, Mickaël Scherlen)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.