Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat 4 Player Local game?

Combat + 4 Player Local

Of 115 developers who shipped a Combat 4 Player Local game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 228 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $58k, ×93 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 228 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 228 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 115
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $598 → $1.4k → $1.2k → $719 → $719 → $898 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 115
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $58,488)
Developers, 2 yr 115
Released games 356
Announced 228
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, 4 Player Local; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Multiplayer, PvP
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 23,011 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 73 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 228 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince older $29.99 11,712 88% 351k $11M (exactly $10,537,286) Frozenbyte
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios
Lost Castle 2 $17.99 10,851 78% 326k $5.9M (exactly $5,856,285) Hunter Studio
GRIP: Combat Racing older $29.99 3,669 86% 110k $3.3M (exactly $3,300,999) Caged Element
Nine Parchments older $19.99 4,123 77% 124k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,563) Frozenbyte
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
SpiderHeck older $14.99 3,922 93% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) Neverjam
Lovers in a Dangerous Spacetime older $14.99 3,368 93% 101k $1.5M (exactly $1,514,590) Asteroid Base
GigaBash older $24.99 1,951 94% 59k $1.5M (exactly $1,462,665) Passion Republic Games
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
Little Fighter 2 Remastered $15.88 1,770 76% 53k $843k (exactly $843,228) Little Fighter Co Pty Ltd, Marti Wong
A Few Quick Matches $6.99 2,475 85% 74k $519k (exactly $519,008) Studio Bidou
SpeedRunners 2: King of Speed $9.99 447 55% 13k $134k (exactly $133,966) Fair Play Labs
Nicktoons & The Dice of Destiny $49.99 39 92% 1.2k $58k (exactly $58,488) Petit Fabrik, Fair Play Labs
BattleCap $11.99 159 96% 4.8k $57k (exactly $57,192) MechAlmond Productions
Wendigo Blue · EA $9.99 146 90% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) EndlessFluff
Royalty Free-For-All $11.99 104 86% 3.1k $37k (exactly $37,409) AAAA Games, LLC
Snow Bros. Wonderland $29.99 40 80% 1.2k $36k (exactly $35,988) Tatsujin, Bitwave Games, Toaplan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.