Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Card Game?

4 Player Local + Card Game

Only 19 developers shipped a 4 Player Local Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Culdcept The First, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×6.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $85k, ×180 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 30 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $2.9k → $21k → $119 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,878)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,211)
Top 5% $85k (exactly $85,472)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 47
Announced 30
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local, Card Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Board Game, Local Multiplayer, PvP
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 404 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $85k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. All of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clue/Cluedo: Classic Edition older $16.99 3,096 88% 93k $1.6M (exactly $1,578,031) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
THE GAME OF LIFE 2 older $12.49 3,702 78% 111k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,139) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Evolution Board Game older $14.99 348 81% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) North Star Digital Studios
Mystic Vale older $12.99 384 89% 12k $150k (exactly $149,645) Nomad Games
Charterstone: Digital Edition older $19.99 235 76% 7.1k $141k (exactly $140,930) Acram Digital
Concordia: Digital Edition older $19.99 167 83% 5.0k $100k (exactly $100,150) Acram Digital
MACHI KORO With Everyone older $24.99 119 66% 3.6k $89k (exactly $89,214) Grounding Inc.
Culdcept The First $29.99 95 74% 2.9k $85k (exactly $85,472) CITY CONNECTION
Concrete Jungle older $6.99 323 89% 9.7k $68k (exactly $67,733) ColePowered Games
Let's Play! Oink Games older $24.99 66 78% 2.0k $49k (exactly $49,480) Oink Games Inc.
Nature Game System $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) North Star Digital Games
Keep the Heroes Out $19.99 35 60% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,990) Brueh Games, YarnCat Games
Gnaughty Gnomes $7.99 71 100% 2.1k $17k (exactly $17,019) SandCastles Studio
Fortune Avenue · EA $6.99 63 84% 1.9k $13k (exactly $13,211) Binogure Studio 🐺
Forest of Deceit $9.99 35 100% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Ghost Camp
Light Fingers $19.99 17 76% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Numizmatic
Yesterday's News $11.99 18 83% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Rooibos Games
Deck of Treads $7.99 13 100% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) DuckByte Games
Roll & Win CASINO PARTY $11.99 8 87% 240 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) SAT-BOX

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.