Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien 4 Player Local game?

4 Player Local + Aliens

Only 13 developers shipped an Alien 4 Player Local game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, This Is No Cave, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $150 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 21 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $90 → $4.8k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $26,632)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 51
Announced 21
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Arcade, Action, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $20.00 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $20.00 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 9 games average 90% positive over 188 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $26k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shadowgrounds Survivor older $9.99 583 62% 17k $175k (exactly $174,725) Frozenbyte
Hive Jump older $19.99 189 68% 5.7k $113k (exactly $113,343) Graphite Lab
It came from space and ate our brains older $9.99 167 79% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,050) Triangle Studios
The Captain is Dead older $19.99 66 78% 2.0k $40k (exactly $39,580) Thunderbox Entertainment
Hole io older $4.99 217 59% 6.5k $32k (exactly $32,485) VOODOO
This Is No Cave $6.99 127 96% 3.8k $27k (exactly $26,632) monome.studio
D-Corp older $19.99 36 77% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Frogsong Studios
Astronimo older $14.99 47 80% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Coatsink
Shakes on a Plane older $14.99 46 58% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) Huu Games
HELLFRONT: HONEYMOON older $9.99 64 75% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) SkyGoblin
SUPERVERSE $9.99 37 70% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Superverse Industries
Piss Off · EA $20.00 8 100% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,800) Emmanuel Crispi
Jaxx Blorgin's UFO Jam $4.99 9 100% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Wax Lion
SPASE DEFENSE $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Leo Torrijos
Carnage Mania $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) Gensart
Blastoids $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Moragami Co., Ltd
RAGMONTON ENDLESS for save indie game $3.99 1 0% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Sinned Games
Ultra Mega Planet Battles $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Solindie Games
Earth Space Defenders $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hetocode

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.