Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Adventure game?

4 Player Local + Adventure

Of 73 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 146 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×7.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2809 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 146 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 146 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 73
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $73k → $21k → $1.9k → $6.6k → $4.9k → $11k → $120 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 73
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,192)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,334,066)
Developers, 2 yr 73
Released games 319
Announced 146
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local, Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Local Co-Op, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, Colorful, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 60,763 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 146 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Castle Crashers® older $14.99 109,654 96% 3.3M $49M (exactly $49,311,404) The Behemoth
Wobbly Life $24.99 33,034 97% 991k $25M (exactly $24,765,590) RubberBandGames
Broforce older $14.99 49,512 96% 1.5M $22M (exactly $22,265,546) Free Lives
Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince older $29.99 11,712 88% 351k $11M (exactly $10,537,286) Frozenbyte
Rayman® Legends older $29.99 11,420 89% 343k $10M (exactly $10,274,574) Ubisoft Montpellier
Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed Collection older $19.99 11,912 93% 357k $7.1M (exactly $7,143,626) Sumo Digital
Amazing Frog? · EA older $19.99 11,169 94% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,698,049) Fayju
DIRT 5 older $59.99 3,530 59% 106k $6.4M (exactly $6,352,941) Codemasters
Lost Castle 2 $17.99 10,851 78% 326k $5.9M (exactly $5,856,285) Hunter Studio
Magicka older $9.99 19,174 84% 575k $5.7M (exactly $5,746,448) Arrowhead Game Studios
Zort · EA $4.00 11,738 90% 352k $1.4M (exactly $1,408,560) Londer Software
LEGO® Party! $39.99 1,112 87% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,334,066) SMG Studio
Tales of Graces f Remastered $39.99 773 87% 23k $927k (exactly $927,368) TOSE CO., LTD.
HexBreaker Ⅱ $19.99 1,049 64% 31k $629k (exactly $629,085) 灵煦工作室
Scott Pilgrim EX $28.99 471 85% 14k $410k (exactly $409,629) Tribute Games Inc.
Biped 2 $14.99 813 71% 24k $366k (exactly $365,606) META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy… (META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy Studios)
DuneCrawl $19.99 568 74% 17k $341k (exactly $340,630) Alientrap
DOKAPON! Sword of Fury $24.99 354 85% 11k $265k (exactly $265,394) Sting

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.