Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Action Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Action Roguelike?

4 Player Local + Action Roguelike

Of 32 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, level with the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $47k, ×100 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 73 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 73 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Action Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $1.0k → $2.0k → $1.6k → $4.2k → $359 → $8.4k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Action Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $7.0k (exactly $7,015)
Top 5% $48k (exactly $47,668)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 91
Announced 73
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local, Action Roguelike; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Local Co-Op
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 11,222 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $480, 1 in 4 over $7.0k, 1 in 20 over $47k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spelunky 2 older $19.99 19,736 93% 592k $12M (exactly $11,835,679) Mossmouth, BlitWorks
PlateUp! older $19.99 18,500 94% 555k $11M (exactly $11,094,450) It's happening
Barony older $19.99 12,714 90% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,624,586) Turning Wheel LLC
Lost Castle 2 $17.99 10,851 78% 326k $5.9M (exactly $5,856,285) Hunter Studio
Lost Castle / 失落城堡 older $9.99 18,417 87% 553k $5.5M (exactly $5,519,575) Hunter Studio
Crawl older $14.99 5,625 95% 169k $2.5M (exactly $2,529,562) Powerhoof
Legend of Dungeon older $9.99 1,220 72% 37k $366k (exactly $365,634) Robot Loves Kitty
A Robot Named Fight! older $12.99 796 88% 24k $310k (exactly $310,201) Morningstar Game Studio
Metaverse Keeper / 元能失控 · EA older $14.99 588 77% 18k $264k (exactly $264,424) Sparks Games
Son of a Witch older $23.99 350 84% 11k $252k (exactly $251,895) Bigosaur
INTO EVIL · EA $14.99 106 92% 3.2k $48k (exactly $47,668) Mind's Eye Games
Rogue Fist $8.99 92 89% 2.8k $25k (exactly $24,812) Wetcoat Games
Cursed Blood · EA $14.99 37 75% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) David Marquardt Studios
Wild Rumble $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Mean Mink
Otherlights · EA $19.99 15 100% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Soleil Artificiel
Bugscraper $9.99 28 96% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Yolwoocle, OLX, Verbaudet, Ninesliced
Skulltide $12.99 18 66% 540 $7.0k (exactly $7,015) The Planar Danse
Jumalien $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Kevin Pedatte
Carrot Survivors $4.99 28 100% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) Carrot Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.