Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Fighter › 3D Fighter + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Top-Down Shooter

Only 14 developers shipped a Top-Down Shooter 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Steel Knight's ARMIS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120 in the last 2 years and $120 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 25 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 2450% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $89 → $4.2k → $60 → $0 → $839 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $120 (exactly $120)
Top 25% $839 (exactly $839)
Top 5% $12k (exactly $11,988)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 45
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2450% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Top-Down Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 3D Platformer, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 9 games average 69% positive over 88 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $830, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

I See Red 2022 · $32k Tank Royale 2019 · EA · $15k Geometry Survivor 2024 · $12k Steel Knight's ARMIS 2025 · $12k MAGIC CHAOS 2024 · $4.2k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
I See Red older $9.99 106 90% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Whiteboard Games
Tank Royale · EA older $9.99 50 88% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) BSS company
Geometry Survivor older $4.99 82 69% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,275) Brain Seal Ltd
Steel Knight's ARMIS $9.99 40 57% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) Izanami Game Lab, Inc., FORCES
MAGIC CHAOS older $6.99 20 90% 600 $4.2k (exactly $4,194) SUPER STARMINE
Angry Putin older $0.99 140 91% 4.2k $4.2k (exactly $4,158) Seito Games
Doctor Pigeon Simulator $4.00 26 84% 780 $3.1k (exactly $3,120) Peperoni Games
Super Bear: Hunt for the lost beer older $4.99 13 69% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software
Cape Warrior $2.99 11 81% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Saylor Games
Gladiator of sparta older $9.99 3 33% 90 $899 (exactly $899) LFR games
Goofy Golfette · EA $13.99 2 100% 60 $839 (exactly $839) Tiba Studio
Arrow Dungeon $8.99 3 33% 90 $809 (exactly $809) ParkDol
Kill Them All $6.99 2 50% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Kickback Games
Final Orbit $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) ENBS Dev team
Kill the horde $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) XF Games
Masters of the Air $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) THE POWER OF GAMES
EarthDaddy $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 星际电竞大学野校长

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.