Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Simulation

Of 83 developers who shipped a Simulation 3D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×306 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 96 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 96 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 83
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $597 → $1.6k → $748 → $809 → $479 → $810 (still earning) → $3.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 83
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 5% $459k (exactly $458,816)
Developers, 2 yr 83
Released games 280
Announced 96
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Sandbox
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 56,958 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $540, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  9. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  10. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds67 devs · median $1.5k · 112 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
WWE 2K26 $69.99 2,310 56% 69k $4.9M (exactly $4,850,307) Visual Concepts
UNDERDOGS older $29.99 2,788 97% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,508,364) One Hamsa
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
Fight Angel Special Edition older $19.99 1,776 75% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,067) Red Fox
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
Troublemaker older $19.99 938 89% 28k $563k (exactly $562,519) Gamecom Team
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
The Knight Girl And Dungeons $11.99 397 67% 12k $143k (exactly $142,801) こねこぼくし
LES MILLS XR BODYCOMBAT $29.99 121 85% 3.6k $109k (exactly $108,864) Odders Lab
Blood Crawler $12.99 279 76% 8.4k $109k (exactly $108,726) c3アート
F-22: Air Dominance Fighter $19.99 138 91% 4.1k $83k (exactly $82,759) Digital Image Design Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.