Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Fighter › 3D Fighter + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Collectathon

Only 15 developers shipped a Collectathon 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BLACKWOOD, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×283 the market median. Revenue is up 230% on the market; 6 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 230% on the market, 6 announced, ×0.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.3k → $538 → $598 (still earning) → $987 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 5% $424k (exactly $423,580)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 41
Announced 6
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 230% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Collectathon; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action-Adventure, Action, Adventure
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 951 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  8. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  9. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  10. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds67 devs · median $1.5k · 112 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BLACKWOOD 2026 · $424k Cultivation Magic World 2026 · EA · $108k No Fair Play 2023 · $41k Mark Out! The Wrestling Card Game 2023 · $22k Wild Alone 2025 · $13k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Cultivation Magic World · EA $12.99 276 78% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) DMG Studio
No Fair Play older $2.99 452 90% 14k $41k (exactly $40,544) Self MADev
Mark Out! The Wrestling Card Game older $14.99 49 93% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) DIY Experiences LLC
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
Angry Putin older $0.99 140 91% 4.2k $4.2k (exactly $4,158) Seito Games
Assassin Of Dombardos $9.99 10 80% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Saylor Games
Battle Tops older $3.99 19 89% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) Dylan
Glamour Riot · EA $9.99 7 28% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) AquaStudio, ValarFerys
Assassin of Monsters $3.99 14 78% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) Saylor games
Zombies In Valkeala $2.99 15 66% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software
Assassin of Monsters 2 Spacenator $3.99 10 90% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Saylor Games
Cape Warrior $2.99 11 81% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Saylor Games
Super Clown Obstacles $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.