Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Life Sim

Only 10 developers shipped a Life Sim 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×306 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 21 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $2.1k → $1.9k
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $29,617)
Top 5% $459k (exactly $458,816)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 28
Announced 21
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Life Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 1,016 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds67 devs · median $1.5k · 112 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
Fight School Simulator $9.99 227 88% 6.8k $68k (exactly $68,032) Queen
Trailer Shop Simulator older $4.99 265 73% 8.0k $40k (exactly $39,670) GidAzGames
Parking Tycoon 2: Business Simulator · EA $12.99 76 43% 2.3k $30k (exactly $29,617) Geekon
Drunkn Bar Fight 2 VR · EA $12.99 64 50% 1.9k $25k (exactly $24,941) Yooperlite
Hood Story: Kaito Yamazaki older $12.99 15 93% 450 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Kenzo Games
Angry Putin older $0.99 140 91% 4.2k $4.2k (exactly $4,158) Seito Games
Lost Island older $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Valkeala Software, Ruskija game experie… (Valkeala Software, Ruskija game experience)
Glamour Riot · EA $9.99 7 28% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) AquaStudio, ValarFerys
Money Theft 3 Last Mission $4.99 13 84% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software
Road To Champion: Boxing Simulator · EA $10.99 4 25% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) Gunersoft
牛马模拟器 · EA $5.99 3 33% 90 $539 (exactly $539) BossyuGames
Big Theft Valkeala 2: San Piritori $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software
Build & Survive $3.99 4 75% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Esti Soft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.