Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Historical

Only 14 developers shipped a Historical 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Half Sword, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $21M, ×14341 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $60 → $1.6k → $1.0k → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $900 (exactly $900)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,618)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,445)
Top 5% $21M (exactly $21,483,403)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 49
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Hack and Slash
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 30,126 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $21M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds67 devs · median $1.5k · 112 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chivalry 2 older $39.99 46,707 79% 1.4M $56M (exactly $56,034,388) Torn Banner Studios
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
Hellish Quart · EA older $17.99 8,068 88% 242k $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) Kubold
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
武林志2 (Wushu Chronicles 2) · EA older $19.99 795 41% 24k $477k (exactly $476,761) JiangHu Studio
Galaxy on Fire 2™ Full HD older $7.99 1,479 77% 44k $355k (exactly $354,516) Fishlabs Entertainment GmbH
Broken Edge older $14.99 593 86% 18k $267k (exactly $266,672) TREBUCHET
Dragon Fist: VR Kung Fu older $19.99 305 95% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Ben Olding Games
Gladius | Gladiator VR Sword fighting older $14.99 286 74% 8.6k $129k (exactly $128,614) VirtualAge
Firelight Fantasy: Phoenix Crew older $13.99 173 78% 5.2k $73k (exactly $72,608) Quacky Games
Fight School Simulator $9.99 227 88% 6.8k $68k (exactly $68,032) Queen
Rise of a Legend · EA $17.99 49 77% 1.5k $26k (exactly $26,445) Masquarade, Nicholas St. Germain
Bloodmatch $3.99 19 84% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) DOSMan Games
Tank Simulator $8.99 8 12% 240 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Imperian Online - Praha
Wukong Fight in Kaoria $8.99 6 100% 180 $1.6k (exactly $1,618) 圣工作室
GAYA - The Mystery $8.00 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,440) Dunamis
Kings of Cratia $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) eniscoskun
The Krampus Game · EA $29.99 1 0% 30 $900 (exactly $900) Gaming Limited

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.