Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Fighting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fighting 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Fighting

Of 55 developers who shipped a Fighting 3D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×3.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $21M, ×14341 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 87 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 87 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Fighting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $3.3k → $9.9k → $70k → $12k → $5.4k → $4.2k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Fighting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $5.0k (exactly $5,036)
Top 25% $137k (exactly $136,766)
Top 5% $21M (exactly $21,483,403)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 271
Announced 87
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Fighting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Multiplayer, PvP
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 123,431 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $21M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  10. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds67 devs · median $1.5k · 112 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
TEKKEN 8 older $39.99 46,009 56% 1.4M $55M (exactly $55,196,997) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Party Animals older $19.99 56,043 81% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,608,987) Recreate Games
Gang Beasts older $19.99 54,880 85% 1.6M $33M (exactly $32,911,536) Boneloaf, Rocket Science
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles older $59.99 16,545 87% 496k $30M (exactly $29,776,036) CyberConnect2
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
Clone Drone in the Danger Zone older $19.99 36,084 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,639,575) Doborog Games
JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: All-Star Battle R older $49.99 14,344 91% 430k $22M (exactly $21,511,697) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
THE KING OF FIGHTERS XV $29.99 8,399 83% 252k $7.6M (exactly $7,556,580) SNK CORPORATION
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
WWE 2K26 $69.99 2,310 56% 69k $4.9M (exactly $4,850,307) Visual Concepts
Samson $24.99 2,911 54% 87k $2.2M (exactly $2,182,377) Liquid Swords
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
Capcom Fighting Collection 2 $39.99 734 85% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.