Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Fighter › 3D Fighter + Third-Person Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Fighter Third-Person Shooter?

3D Fighter + Third-Person Shooter

Of 65 developers who shipped a 3D Fighter Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 37 developers shipped in the last year and 78 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 78 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Third-Person Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $807 → $1.2k → $419 → $240 → $539 → $148 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Third-Person Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $240 (exactly $240)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 5% $55k (exactly $54,845)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 183
Announced 78
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Third-Person Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 4,587 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $54k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DAVIGO: VR vs. PC 2023 · EA · $900k 近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau 2024 · $833k Valkyrie of Phantasm 2024 · $500k BLACKWOOD 2026 · $424k Galaxy on Fire 2™ Full HD 2012 · $355k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Valkyrie of Phantasm $29.99 556 86% 17k $500k (exactly $500,233) AREAZERO
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Galaxy on Fire 2™ Full HD older $7.99 1,479 77% 44k $355k (exactly $354,516) Fishlabs Entertainment GmbH
Hell Division older $13.99 191 83% 5.7k $80k (exactly $80,163) Quacky Games
Air Twister older $24.99 101 93% 3.0k $76k (exactly $75,720) YS NET
The Wraith of the Galaxy · EA older $11.99 161 81% 4.8k $58k (exactly $57,912) Whale Rock Games
Fight Crab 2 · EA older $14.99 128 92% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Calappa Games
Cyberpunk SFX $9.99 183 83% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Whale Rock Games
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman
PATLABOR the Case Files $34.99 47 65% 1.4k $49k (exactly $49,336) Chime
Fear of Hot Water Ghost $4.99 159 69% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,802) nStarcube
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
Wasteland with Robots $9.99 34 94% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Gamesforgames
Tutien Path $14.99 16 81% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) Truong Thanh Triet

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.