Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Fighter › 3D Fighter + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Swordplay 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Swordplay

Of 39 developers who shipped a Swordplay 3D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 64 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 475% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 475% on the market, 64 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $2.5k → $599 → $11k → $449 → $179 → $359 (still earning) → $7.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,891)
Top 5% $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 133
Announced 64
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 475% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Swordplay; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 38,972 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $8.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Chivalry 2 2022 · $56M Clone Drone in the Danger Zone 2021 · $22M Half Sword 2026 · EA · $21M SOULCALIBUR VI 2018 · $18M BLEACH Rebirth of Souls 2025 · $8.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chivalry 2 older $39.99 46,707 79% 1.4M $56M (exactly $56,034,388) Torn Banner Studios
Clone Drone in the Danger Zone older $19.99 36,084 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,639,575) Doborog Games
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
GORN older $19.99 7,449 94% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,467,165) Free Lives
Hellish Quart · EA older $17.99 8,068 88% 242k $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) Kubold
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
ELDERBORN older $14.99 2,229 87% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,381) Hyperstrange
Mitsurugi Kamui Hikae older $9.99 2,747 81% 82k $823k (exactly $823,276) Zenith Blue
Bloodthief $19.99 1,017 95% 31k $610k (exactly $609,895) Blargis
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
The Knight Girl And Dungeons $11.99 397 67% 12k $143k (exactly $142,801) こねこぼくし
Snow x Hime $12.99 195 55% 5.9k $76k (exactly $75,992) Kazuya, tensun3d
Kraken City $4.99 189 67% 5.7k $28k (exactly $28,293) nStarcube
Tales Of Glory 4 : Ragnarok · EA $29.99 31 83% 930 $28k (exactly $27,891) BlackTale Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.