Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Real Time Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real Time Tactics 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Real Time Tactics

Only 17 developers shipped a Real Time Tactics 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Electro Bop Boxing League, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 4070% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 4070% on the market, 28 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Real Time Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $210 → $94k → $240 → $839 → $75
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Real Time Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,429)
Top 5% $38k (exactly $37,775)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 59
Announced 28
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4070% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Real Time Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Combat
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 500 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $840, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $37k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
武林志2 (Wushu Chronicles 2) · EA older $19.99 795 41% 24k $477k (exactly $476,761) JiangHu Studio
Tactic Boxing older $9.99 416 77% 12k $125k (exactly $124,675) Stately Eagle Games
Boxing Club Manager older $39.99 87 57% 2.6k $104k (exactly $104,374) Alternative Software Ltd
Bloody Knuckles Street Boxing · EA older $14.99 210 52% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Luvseatshawty
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
U.F.F.C - Ultra Fuckin’ Fuckable Championship $8.99 135 75% 4.1k $36k (exactly $36,410) WetWetGames
Tales Of Glory 4 : Ragnarok · EA $29.99 31 83% 930 $28k (exactly $27,891) BlackTale Games
Rise of a Legend · EA $17.99 49 77% 1.5k $26k (exactly $26,445) Masquarade, Nicholas St. Germain
Dynasty Protocol $17.99 36 63% 1.1k $19k (exactly $19,429) Ellipses Studios
Boxing Simulator $7.99 79 79% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Inogames
MEMOLOGY: ESCAPE OF MEMES $0.99 35 91% 1.1k $1.0k (exactly $1,040) Gamesforfarm, Piece Of Voxel
The Memological Dungeon $0.99 33 90% 990 $980 (exactly $980) Gamesforfarm
BLEST $6.99 4 0% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Oedipe Games
Battle Balls · EA $1.99 14 100% 420 $836 (exactly $836) Fonderland Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.