Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Parkour

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Parkour 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Parkour

Only 15 developers shipped a Parkour 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Bloodthief, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×9.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $450 against a market of $1.5k. 27 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 975% on the market, 27 announced, ×9.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Parkour
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $1.3k → $899 → $807 → $748
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Parkour: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $1.4k (exactly $1,440)
Top 5% $610k (exactly $609,895)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 46
Announced 27
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 975% on the market, supply 75% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 33%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Parkour
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Parkour; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, 3D Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 1,314 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bloodthief $19.99 1,017 95% 31k $610k (exactly $609,895) Blargis
Lugaru HD older $9.99 356 83% 11k $107k (exactly $106,693) Wolfire Games
Knock'Em Out $7.99 239 85% 7.2k $57k (exactly $57,288) BBear Studio
No Fair Play older $2.99 452 90% 14k $41k (exactly $40,544) Self MADev
Stilt older $19.99 29 89% 870 $17k (exactly $17,391) Rekt Games
Flippin Misfits older $4.99 61 59% 1.8k $9.1k (exactly $9,132) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Tenders Fight older $4.99 26 96% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Isaac MENARD, Tom BOUTONNAT, Ethis CLAU… (Isaac MENARD, Tom BOUTONNAT, Ethis CLAUSS, Gabriel SOUSSI)
Zilar: Empire Of The Underground $4.99 18 100% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Sthard Game
GAYA - The Mystery $8.00 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,440) Dunamis
Pinhead Adventures · EA older $14.99 3 33% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Neversold
RAGDOLL UNIVERSE · EA $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) MageC
Deadly Joy $2.99 9 33% 270 $807 (exactly $807) Napping Penguin
Hypercore $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Hyperforg
Motor Racing Battle $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liquid Meow
Haloo $2.99 5 100% 150 $449 (exactly $449) Ellelel
Dubai Chocolate Simulator $2.78 4 75% 120 $334 (exactly $334) Goldbay

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.