Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Fighter › 3D Fighter + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Ninja

Only 16 developers shipped a Ninja 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $89. 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $2.4k → $68k → $299 → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $137k (exactly $136,766)
Top 5% $5.2M (exactly $5,181,336)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 48
Announced 18
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 5,728 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $300, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $5.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 6 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NARUTO X BORUTO Ultimate Ninja STORM CONNECTIONS 2023 · $7.0M NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 3 Full Burst HD 2013 · $6.4M Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2 2025 · $5.2M SENRAN KAGURA ESTIVAL VERSUS 2017 · $4.5M NARUTO: Ultimate Ninja STORM 2017 · $3.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NARUTO X BORUTO Ultimate Ninja STORM CONNECTIONS older $59.99 3,881 62% 116k $7.0M (exactly $6,984,636) CyberConnect2 Co., Ltd.
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 3 Full Burst HD older $19.99 10,749 89% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,446,175) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2 $59.99 2,879 83% 86k $5.2M (exactly $5,181,336) CyberConnect2
SENRAN KAGURA ESTIVAL VERSUS older $29.99 4,986 94% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,485,904) Tamsoft
NARUTO: Ultimate Ninja STORM older $19.99 5,986 76% 180k $3.6M (exactly $3,589,804) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 2 older $19.99 3,457 88% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,073,163) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
DEAD OR ALIVE 6 Last Round $39.99 550 31% 17k $660k (exactly $659,835) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutants Unleashed $39.99 114 50% 3.4k $137k (exactly $136,766) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
Die by the Blade older $19.99 128 57% 3.8k $77k (exactly $76,762) Grindstone, Triple Hill Interactive, To… (Grindstone, Triple Hill Interactive, Toko Midori Games)
Fight School Simulator $9.99 227 88% 6.8k $68k (exactly $68,032) Queen
Ninja Remix $5.00 39 74% 1.2k $5.9k (exactly $5,850) Hesoyam
Prop Sumo $9.99 13 84% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Barrel Roll Games
Sunset Street Ninja $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) SkeletronMK, The1AndonlyBloo
HAJIKI: Samurai Reflex Action $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) 電脳鈴木組
Samurai Fighters Together $0.99 5 60% 150 $148 (exactly $148) cnsgames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.