Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Magic

Of 32 developers who shipped a Magic 3D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59. 69 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper, while revenue is up 115% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 69 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $356 → $1.0k → $2.1k → $629 → $480 → $20k → $359 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 5% $62k (exactly $61,609)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 109
Announced 69
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Spectacle fighter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 735 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $61k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 8 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RUMBLE · EA older $24.99 3,158 87% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,367,553) Buckethead Entertainment
MageQuit older $14.99 1,032 94% 31k $464k (exactly $464,090) Bowlcut Studios
TOUHOU SKY ARENA MATSURI CLIMAX older $19.99 200 86% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) AREAZERO
Demon Sword: Incubus older $19.99 184 76% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Brianode
Blood Crawler $12.99 279 76% 8.4k $109k (exactly $108,726) c3アート
Magical Battle Festa older $9.99 263 68% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) Fly System
Elements Divided $14.99 137 86% 4.1k $62k (exactly $61,609) Loco Motion Devs
Firelight Fantasy: Resistance older $11.99 165 77% 5.0k $59k (exactly $59,350) Quacky Games
Obama Boss Fight older $2.99 640 95% 19k $57k (exactly $57,408) xXx_Skipper_xXx
Anima Gate of Memories: I&II Remaster $24.99 50 90% 1.5k $37k (exactly $37,485) Anima Project
Super Shout Showdown · EA $7.99 111 83% 3.3k $27k (exactly $26,607) Rezero Studio
Tales Of Glory 3 : Fists of Legend $19.99 34 88% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) BlackTale Games
Sir Galgano - A Medieval Tale $24.99 9 22% 270 $6.7k (exactly $6,747) La Fucina del Granducato
女神試煉 Quest of Goddess $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) DNAXCAT CO., LTD.
InTheLake $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) ZhiZhi
The Jiang Shi 2 :Curse of Soul $0.99 78 94% 2.3k $2.3k (exactly $2,317) 谭浩翔
Aurora's Awakening $15.00 3 100% 90 $1.4k (exactly $1,350) DJCat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.