Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Fighter › 3D Fighter + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Fantasy

Of 86 developers who shipped a Fantasy 3D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 164 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 43 developers shipped in the last year and 164 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 164 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 86
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $2.1k → $299 → $270 → $446 → $1.4k → $359 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 86
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Top 5% $158k (exactly $158,218)
Developers, 2 yr 86
Released games 293
Announced 164
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action RPG
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 3,203 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 65 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 164 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SOULCALIBUR VI 2018 · $18M NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 3 Full Burst HD 2013 · $6.4M RUMBLE 2022 · EA · $2.4M ELDERBORN 2020 · $1.0M DAVIGO: VR vs. PC 2023 · EA · $900k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 3 Full Burst HD older $19.99 10,749 89% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,446,175) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
RUMBLE · EA older $24.99 3,158 87% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,367,553) Buckethead Entertainment
ELDERBORN older $14.99 2,229 87% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,381) Hyperstrange
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
Valkyrie of Phantasm $29.99 556 86% 17k $500k (exactly $500,233) AREAZERO
Broken Edge older $14.99 593 86% 18k $267k (exactly $266,672) TREBUCHET
Echoes of Yi : Samsara $19.99 444 67% 13k $266k (exactly $266,267) Runmeng
Legends of Hidden Sword · EA older $16.99 517 58% 16k $264k (exactly $263,515) 神经刀游戏工作室
Inquisitor’s Heart and Soul $12.99 635 80% 19k $247k (exactly $247,460) Whale Rock Games
Stickman Strikes: Conquer Fantasy World $11.99 642 78% 19k $231k (exactly $230,927) LGaoGame
Spirit X Strike · EA $12.99 406 82% 12k $158k (exactly $158,218) MAICHA STUDIO
Snow x Hime $12.99 195 55% 5.9k $76k (exactly $75,992) Kazuya, tensun3d
Ys vs. Trails in the Sky: Alternative Saga $34.99 59 94% 1.8k $62k (exactly $61,932) Nihon Falcom
Elements Divided $14.99 137 86% 4.1k $62k (exactly $61,609) Loco Motion Devs
Liuyin's world $18.99 79 89% 2.4k $45k (exactly $45,006) kingnagame
Anima Gate of Memories: I&II Remaster $24.99 50 90% 1.5k $37k (exactly $37,485) Anima Project

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.