Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Exploration

Of 58 developers who shipped an Exploration 3D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. 97 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper, while revenue is up 55% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 97 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $210 → $1.3k → $298 → $629 → $450 → $538 (still earning) → $7.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,790)
Top 5% $122k (exactly $122,359)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 163
Announced 97
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Exploration; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 63% positive over 1,954 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELDERBORN older $14.99 2,229 87% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,381) Hyperstrange
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Galaxy on Fire 2™ Full HD older $7.99 1,479 77% 44k $355k (exactly $354,516) Fishlabs Entertainment GmbH
Echoes of Yi : Samsara $19.99 444 67% 13k $266k (exactly $266,267) Runmeng
Kromlech · EA $29.99 136 65% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Perun Creative
Blood Crawler $12.99 279 76% 8.4k $109k (exactly $108,726) c3アート
Frenzy VR · EA older $14.99 205 60% 6.2k $92k (exactly $92,188) Innoverse Ltd
Spider Queen cave older $18.99 159 40% 4.8k $91k (exactly $90,582) 帅宅快乐屋
Skeletal Avenger older $16.99 158 82% 4.7k $81k (exactly $80,533) 10tons Ltd
Redemption of Liuyin $18.99 137 83% 4.1k $78k (exactly $78,049) kingnagame
Parking Tycoon 2: Business Simulator · EA $12.99 76 43% 2.3k $30k (exactly $29,617) Geekon
Innocent Assault SS $10.99 79 84% 2.4k $26k (exactly $26,046) ひみつ結社キジネコ
Fear of Hot Water Ghost $4.99 159 69% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,802) nStarcube
CICADA $9.99 40 92% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) daimaGAME
Project Three · EA $7.99 39 23% 1.2k $9.3k (exactly $9,348) The Only Way Out

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.