Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Crafting

Only 14 developers shipped a Crafting 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fight School Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450. 24 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 3010% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 3010% on the market, 24 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $59 → $13k → $7.2k → $3.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $810 (exactly $810)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,529)
Top 5% $68k (exactly $68,032)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 40
Announced 24
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3010% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Crafting
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 627 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $810, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $68k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fight School Simulator $9.99 227 88% 6.8k $68k (exactly $68,032) Queen
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman
Trailer Shop Simulator older $4.99 265 73% 8.0k $40k (exactly $39,670) GidAzGames
Parking Tycoon 2: Business Simulator · EA $12.99 76 43% 2.3k $30k (exactly $29,617) Geekon
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
Tutien Path $14.99 16 81% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) Truong Thanh Triet
Survive The Dark · EA older $4.99 28 78% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) bHaptics Inc.
Doctor Pigeon Simulator $4.00 26 84% 780 $3.1k (exactly $3,120) Peperoni Games
Battle Tops older $3.99 19 89% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) Dylan
Nightron Wars older $10.99 4 25% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) TearStorm Entertainment
The Joust $1.00 27 92% 810 $810 (exactly $810) The Joust
No Final Run $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Nordstern
Build & Survive $3.99 4 75% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Esti Soft
World Without $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Neo Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.