Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Artificial Intelligence

Only 13 developers shipped an AI 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, AI-deal-Rays [General Edition], made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120 in the last 2 years and $150 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 21 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $90 → $179
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $120 (exactly $120)
Top 25% $179 (exactly $179)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $20,126)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 49
Announced 21
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 3D Platformer, Arena Shooter
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Linear
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 7 games average 65% positive over 142 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $170, 1 in 20 over $20k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Boxing Club Manager older $39.99 87 57% 2.6k $104k (exactly $104,374) Alternative Software Ltd
Trailer Shop Simulator older $4.99 265 73% 8.0k $40k (exactly $39,670) GidAzGames
AI-deal-Rays [General Edition] $5.99 112 58% 3.4k $20k (exactly $20,126) Riez-ON
История бомжа older $4.99 52 67% 1.6k $7.8k (exactly $7,784) Quarlellle
Fat Prisoner Simulator 3 older $0.99 93 89% 2.8k $2.8k (exactly $2,762) Kiddy
Project RAZE: Fall of Terra · EA $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) FearForge Studios
MBHL20 older $4.99 13 46% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Halt Studios
Winnie The Pooh: The Serial Killer older $3.99 16 87% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) Ambitious Shark
Broombot Battlegrounds older $4.99 12 91% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) The Cleanup Kings LLC
Assassin of Monsters $3.99 14 78% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) Saylor games
Arena Fighter $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) TAHA Games
Real Or Fake $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Jsumin08
Bulletproof Tank Adventure $0.99 5 100% 150 $148 (exactly $148) HAPPYTECH
ZeroPoint · EA $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Aysert Games
Robot Rampage $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Robert MacRae
Blade of Jinshu $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Travis Carpenter
The Drone Lord $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Ian Chambers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.