Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Fighter › 3D Fighter + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Aliens

Only 15 developers shipped an Alien 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Jet Fighter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $0 in the last 2 years and $59 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $297 → $119 → $59 → $0 → $0
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $0 (exactly $0)
Top 25% $90 (exactly $90)
Top 5% $269 (exactly $269)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 53
Announced 14
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter
Price point
$2.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 5 games average 78% positive over 9 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $0, 1 in 4 over $90, 1 in 20 over $260.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Fairspace 2015 · $7.6k Roarr! The Adventures of Rampage Rex 2018 · $4.8k MetaMorphic Rippers 2022 · $1.5k Kokoro Ultimate 2022 · $719 The Last From Mars 2021 · EA · $479
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fairspace older $8.99 28 64% 840 $7.6k (exactly $7,552) Sub Orbital Software
Roarr! The Adventures of Rampage Rex older $2.99 54 66% 1.6k $4.8k (exactly $4,844) Born Lucky Games
MetaMorphic Rippers older $10.00 5 60% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,500) SlovGoblin
Kokoro Ultimate older $7.99 3 66% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Dream Makerz Inc., OMAGX Studios
The Last From Mars · EA older $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Cualit Eng. Ltda.
Kitsune Battlemage · EA older $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Everflame Studio
Korlax Escape! older $4.29 3 100% 90 $386 (exactly $386) Lewis Haynes
A Bots Color Adventure older $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Dreamscape Dynamics
Just One older $0.99 10 90% 300 $297 (exactly $297) Balti Calarasi
Multiplayer Military older $0.99 10 70% 300 $297 (exactly $297) Archor Wright
Rogue Jet Fighter $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Fierro Studios LLC
BlackLaceAssassins $1.99 2 50% 60 $119 (exactly $119) VirtualDelightsPro
MINE $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) ANGA GAMES
Raid in Galaxy $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Thunustron
Test Subject $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Autonomous Tree
Space Vortex $25.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hosny
EarthDaddy $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 星际电竞大学野校长
Infernum VR · EA $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Ingenious Knowledge, Atlantic Infinity
Area51 $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Jon Fabris
The Drone Lord $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Ian Chambers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.