Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Adventure

Of 167 developers who shipped an Adventure 3D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 236 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $330 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 88 developers shipped in the last year and 236 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 236 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 167
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $599 → $330 → $239 → $809 → $1.2k → $185 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 167
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 5% $122k (exactly $122,359)
Developers, 2 yr 167
Released games 595
Announced 236
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 37,099 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 124 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 236 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles older $59.99 16,545 87% 496k $30M (exactly $29,776,036) CyberConnect2
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
Judgment older $39.99 9,407 93% 282k $11M (exactly $11,285,578) RGG Studio
Lost Judgment older $39.99 7,461 93% 224k $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) RGG Studio
NARUTO X BORUTO Ultimate Ninja STORM CONNECTIONS older $59.99 3,881 62% 116k $7.0M (exactly $6,984,636) CyberConnect2 Co., Ltd.
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 3 Full Burst HD older $19.99 10,749 89% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,446,175) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2 $59.99 2,879 83% 86k $5.2M (exactly $5,181,336) CyberConnect2
NARUTO: Ultimate Ninja STORM older $19.99 5,986 76% 180k $3.6M (exactly $3,589,804) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
UNDERDOGS older $29.99 2,788 97% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,508,364) One Hamsa
Samson $24.99 2,911 54% 87k $2.2M (exactly $2,182,377) Liquid Swords
Echoes of Yi : Samsara $19.99 444 67% 13k $266k (exactly $266,267) Runmeng
Inquisitor’s Heart and Soul $12.99 635 80% 19k $247k (exactly $247,460) Whale Rock Games
Stickman Strikes: Conquer Fantasy World $11.99 642 78% 19k $231k (exactly $230,927) LGaoGame
Spirit X Strike · EA $12.99 406 82% 12k $158k (exactly $158,218) MAICHA STUDIO
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutants Unleashed $39.99 114 50% 3.4k $137k (exactly $136,766) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
Kromlech · EA $29.99 136 65% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Perun Creative
Cultivation Magic World · EA $12.99 276 78% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) DMG Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.