Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Fighter › 3D Fighter + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + 4 Player Local

Of 29 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local 3D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 39 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 65% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $597 → $1.9k → $2.7k → $1.2k → $719 → $839 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 5% $57k (exactly $57,288)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 89
Announced 39
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, 4 Player Local; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 3D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 424 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $57k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Party Animals 2023 · $34M Gang Beasts 2017 · $33M Wrestling Empire 2021 · $1.8M GigaBash 2022 · $1.5M DAVIGO: VR vs. PC 2023 · EA · $900k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Party Animals older $19.99 56,043 81% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,608,987) Recreate Games
Gang Beasts older $19.99 54,880 85% 1.6M $33M (exactly $32,911,536) Boneloaf, Rocket Science
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
GigaBash older $24.99 1,951 94% 59k $1.5M (exactly $1,462,665) Passion Republic Games
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
MageQuit older $14.99 1,032 94% 31k $464k (exactly $464,090) Bowlcut Studios
A Gummy's Life older $19.99 194 81% 5.8k $116k (exactly $116,342) EP Games®
Ys vs. Trails in the Sky: Alternative Saga $34.99 59 94% 1.8k $62k (exactly $61,932) Nihon Falcom
Knock'Em Out $7.99 239 85% 7.2k $57k (exactly $57,288) BBear Studio
LASTFIGHT older $14.99 64 76% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) Piranaking
Mini Bash $9.99 33 93% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Imperial Reality Labs
Amer Fighting - عامر المشاجرة $9.99 29 93% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Mad Hook
Shaolin Bao $8.99 15 93% 450 $4.0k (exactly $4,046) SCH Games
女神試煉 Quest of Goddess $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) DNAXCAT CO., LTD.
Genki Break! $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) SteamyDev
Elemental Showdown $7.99 5 100% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Grumpy Duck Games
RAGDOLL UNIVERSE · EA $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) MageC
Casual Sport Series: Boxing $5.99 5 80% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Revulo Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.