Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + 2D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting 2D Platformer?

Crafting + 2D Platformer

Of 81 developers who shipped a Crafting 2D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 167 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 40 developers shipped in the last year and 167 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 167 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + 2D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 81
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $449 → $300 → $539 → $539 → $59 → $898 (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + 2D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 81
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $270 (exactly $270)
Top 25% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 5% $44k (exactly $44,461)
Developers, 2 yr 81
Released games 243
Announced 167
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, 2D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,751 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $44k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 75 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 167 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Dinotica $17.99 746 86% 22k $403k (exactly $402,616) XA Studio
Primal Planet $19.99 629 88% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Seethingswarm
Sea Fantasy $14.99 585 86% 18k $263k (exactly $263,074) METASLA
Magical Delicacy older $24.99 240 77% 7.2k $180k (exactly $179,928) Skaule
Cafe Master Story older $12.99 378 96% 11k $147k (exactly $147,307) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Himno - The Silent Melody · EA older $11.99 287 78% 8.6k $103k (exactly $103,234) David Moralejo Sánchez
Apocalyptic cat older $29.99 101 84% 3.0k $91k (exactly $90,870) Galactic Geckon
Land Of Idyllic Beauty · EA older $11.99 222 83% 6.7k $80k (exactly $79,853) Neo
Garlic Builder older $7.99 299 92% 9.0k $72k (exactly $71,670) CaveLiquid
Snacktorio $7.99 215 90% 6.5k $52k (exactly $51,536) ellraiser
Immortal Farmer: System’s Mandate · EA $4.99 297 68% 8.9k $44k (exactly $44,461) oyogame
仙之气 · EA $10.99 114 74% 3.4k $38k (exactly $37,586) 按键工坊
Yuma Nest · EA $19.99 57 89% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Piokou
Woolly Boy and the Circus $7.99 42 64% 1.3k $10k (exactly $10,067) big pineapple
FolkOrigin $7.99 36 88% 1.1k $8.6k (exactly $8,629) LukaszD
The Peak of Life $8.99 30 66% 900 $8.1k (exactly $8,091) XY Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.